Spot Bitcoin ETFs have extended their longest inflow streak since September, with BlackRock's IBIT posting its best weekly performance in six months — but on-chain data suggests the rally may be resting on an unstable foundation.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their ninth consecutive day of inflows on April 24, adding $14.45 million to bring the streak's total to approximately $2.1 billion, according to SoSoValue data. The nine-day run marks the longest sustained inflow period since September 2025.
Weekly flows tell a similar story. ETFs saw $823.7 million in inflows for the week ending April 24, following back-to-back weeks of $996.4 million and $786.3 million — three straight weeks of strong institutional demand. BlackRock's IBIT led the charge, posting $983 million in weekly inflows, its highest in six months.
While ETF demand is clearly high and sustained, not all signals are bullish. The current rally lacks a key ingredient, according to Ki Young Ju, founder of on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
"Bitcoin is currently futures-driven. Open interest is rising, but on-chain apparent demand remains net negative despite ETF inflows and Saylor buys," Ju wrote on Monday. "Historically, bear markets end when both spot and futures demand recover."
Illia Otychenko, lead analyst at CEX.IO, echoed the cautionary note. "That often signals at least part of the rally has been driven by a short squeeze rather than broad spot demand alone," he said.
The imbalance is visible in liquidation data. Since April 13, short liquidations have totaled roughly $2.8 billion, compared to $1.8 billion in long liquidations, according to CoinGlass — a clear sign that bearish traders have been caught off guard. Because bearish traders continue adding short exposure, Otychenko noted there is still room for further upside if more shorts are forced to unwind. However, for the rally to become sustainable, stronger spot demand, increased on-chain activity, and broader participation are necessary. Without those, a correction may follow.
Ju's warning highlights a similar disconnect. Though ETFs are absorbing supply, spot buying across exchanges — where the majority of trading occurs — is not keeping pace. That setup signals increased leverage from futures investors rather than genuine spot accumulation.
A meaningful share of recent ETF demand may also be tied to cash-and-carry trades, in which institutions buy IBIT shares while shorting CME futures to capture the spread, Otychenko noted. This strategy is market-neutral, meaning not all the inflows should be viewed as outright bullish conviction. In a cash-and-carry trade, institutions buy spot Bitcoin ETF shares while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures on CME, profiting from the price difference regardless of whether Bitcoin goes up or down.
Supporting Bitcoin's uncertain uptrend outlook is the negative funding rate — a fee paid by traders to maintain parity between spot and futures prices. A negative funding rate indicates investors are opening short or bearish positions. Options markets' 25-delta skew is also negative, hovering between -2% and -5%, suggesting investors are paying a premium for downside protection.
"Funding rates are near historical lows, while long-term holders are showing record levels of accumulation," Otychenko said. "One of these two groups is likely to be proven very wrong. That kind of tension usually does not last long, and when it resolves, the move tends to be fast and decisive."
Until spot demand catches up, the outlook for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remains uncertain. Bitcoin was trading at around $77,800, down 0.2% over the past 24 hours but up roughly 3.5% over the past week, according to CoinGecko data. Investors remain cautious in the short term, assigning only a 42% chance that the leading cryptocurrency closes above $78,000 on Monday.
Why it matters
ETF inflows alone do not confirm spot-driven demand: a meaningful portion may reflect cash-and-carry arbitrage, where institutions simultaneously buy ETF shares and short CME futures, making the trade directionally neutral rather than a bullish bet on price.
The gap between short and long liquidations since April 13 indicates the price move has been partly mechanical — forced short covering — rather than organic buying, which affects how durable the current level may be.
Negative funding rates and negative options skew are occurring simultaneously with record long-term holder accumulation, creating an unusual tension between derivatives positioning and on-chain behavior that analysts say tends to resolve quickly and sharply.
