The primary driver behind Bitcoin's recent price decline is the development community's failure to address the quantum computing threat, which has pushed the so-called Bitcoin Quantum Discount to a new high of 28%, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.
New data from Edwards' valuation model reveals a significant gap between Bitcoin's current market price and its estimated fair value. Bitcoin has dropped 15.60% and is presently trading at $62,099.03.
That decline has pushed the price entirely below the model's yellow "Discount Factor" line — a baseline that projects Bitcoin's true valuation on a steady trajectory toward $120,000.
According to Edwards, the decisive downward pressure on Bitcoin's price stems from what he describes as a complete standstill in development by the Bitcoin Core team, which has yet to make meaningful progress on integrating post-quantum encryption algorithms.
Edwards estimates that the mathematical probability of the current ECDSA cryptographic standard being compromised by quantum computing — an event commonly referred to as "Q-Day" — will begin rising exponentially after 2027 and could reach 63.53% by 2030.
The Capriole Investments founder states directly that if an official network upgrade plan is not presented within the next 12 months, Bitcoin will technically be unable to set a new all-time high and will continue a prolonged decline, with the market pricing in quantum uncertainty through an ongoing discount.
Beyond the technological risks, Edwards also points to what he calls a hidden structural problem: a debt bubble forming in corporate treasuries, created by Michael Saylor's aggressive strategy of transforming Strategy into what Edwards characterizes as an unregulated Bitcoin ETF carrying enormous leverage.
Edwards further identifies a broader retail investor exodus as a compounding factor. He argues that an endless cycle of fraudulent meme coins and rug pulls has created lasting skepticism among retail participants, effectively eliminating what he considers Bitcoin's main historical growth engine — fresh capital inflows from retail investors.
Taken together, Edwards concludes that the 28% discount now embedded in Bitcoin's price represents an investment paradox: the market is artificially undervaluing the asset due to technological fear. However, should an official announcement of completed post-quantum signature code emerge, he believes the price gap would close rapidly through aggressive repricing toward Bitcoin's estimated real value.
Why it matters
Edwards explicitly states that without an official post-quantum network upgrade plan within 12 months, Bitcoin will be technically unable to reach a new all-time high — meaning the quantum discount is not merely a market mood but a condition tied to a concrete development deadline.
The ECDSA cryptographic standard currently secures Bitcoin wallet signatures; Edwards' model projects the probability of it being broken by quantum computing could reach 63.53% by 2030, making the timeline for a protocol response a material factor for holders.
Edwards identifies three compounding pressures — quantum development paralysis, leveraged corporate treasury exposure, and retail investor disengagement — as simultaneously weighing on Bitcoin's price, each reinforcing the others.
