Bitcoin's price action sealed its first weekly candle close above the 21-week moving average trend line since the asset traded near $115,000 in October 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) is counting down the final days of April with a fresh push toward $80,000 as price teases key breakouts.
Among the highlights: Bitcoin recorded its first weekly close above a critical trend line since October 2025; liquidity grabs are intensifying as traders eye a potential support retest near $70,000; the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision and upcoming inflation data are set to drive macro volatility; analysts see the "end of capitulation" on Bitcoin as institutions shore up the market; and US manufacturing data could help BTC/USD avoid a retest of its macro lows.
Bitcoin Closes Above 21-Week Trend Line for the First Time in Six Months
Bitcoin may have failed to tap $80,000 or hold its latest gains, but the weekly close was nonetheless significant. After a last-minute push higher, BTC/USD managed to close the weekly candle just above a key trend line, according to data from TradingView.
That trend line is the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) — a resistance feature on the chart that has been in place since October 2025. The last weekly close above it occurred when the pair was trading at nearly $115,000.
Analysts had previously argued that a weekly close above the 21-week EMA was a prerequisite for avoiding a support retest of $73,000. "Unless BTC is able to reclaim the 21-week EMA as support... then this EMA could indeed force BTC into a post-breakout retest of the top of the Double Bottom price broke out from last week," one analyst told followers on X.
The 21-week EMA currently forms the upper boundary of Bitcoin's bull market support band, together with the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) sitting at $76,550. It was also in October of last year that price completed a weekly close fully above the band's two trend lines.
Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted last week that such an event "could confirm the end of this down trend and further relief bounce."
Liquidity Grabs Drive Short-Term BTC Price Action
On shorter time frames, the BTC price landscape is offering traders mixed signals. Despite overall strength persisting amid geopolitical uncertainty, bulls continue to struggle with reclaiming key support levels.
"Some great momentum on $BTC lately, however there are some crucial levels to consider," crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe commented in his latest analysis on X. Van de Poppe noted that a break through $79,000 opens the path to levels as high as $100,000, though he cautioned that reaching those levels "will take time."
"If there's no clear breakout at $79K, it wouldn't be surprising to expect some period of consolidation before there's another test of the resistance," he reasoned. "In that case, there's a level that I prefer to see hold: $73.5k+."
Van de Poppe added that a drop to the $73,000 area could follow if that level fails to hold.
Trader CrypNuevo suggested that liquidity grabs could bring about a trip to the lower end of the $70,000–$80,000 corridor. After the weekly close, BTC/USD took out late shorts above $79,000 before rapidly heading downward, liquidating newly placed longs, according to data from CoinGlass.
"Price could take the upside liquidations first in a range highs deviation, before going for the lower ones at $70k mid-range," CrypNuevo predicted, adding that both $70,000 and $80,000 had an "interesting amount" of potential liquidations to offer.
Powell's Final Fed FOMC Meeting Brings Stocks Warning
With markets still uncertain about the roadmap for the US-Iran conflict, risk appetite is nonetheless "returning," according to analysts. The week began with hopes of further negotiations to end the conflict, following an Iranian proposal.
Bitcoin appeared to find reason for relief on the news, hitting new multi-month highs before quickly retracing. "Risk appetite continues to grow rapidly in this market," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X as BTC/USD neared $79,500.
Macro volatility is set to continue in the coming days, driven in part by US macroeconomic events. Wednesday will see the Federal Reserve's next decision on interest rates, and markets will be watching Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for cues on future policy direction.
The ongoing conflict has added new inflation risks for the US, and Thursday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge is expected to reflect its impact. This week also marks the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with Powell as Chair, ahead of the assumed takeover by Kevin Warsh.
"New Fed chairs have a history of being greeted with market volatility," noted trading resource Mosaic Asset Company in its regular analysis series, The Market Mosaic. An accompanying chart placed the average S&P 500 drawdown in the year a new Fed chair takes over at 20%.
BTC Price Analysis Sees a "Structural Bottom" in Place
With Bitcoin trading near $80,000, analysts are suggesting that the "end of capitulation" is already here. In a blog post published Monday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant pointed to institutional investors as the key supporting factor during the 2026 bear market.
"During the Hormuz Shock, large investors refused to sell their Bitcoins and the panic in derivatives was irrelevant, as institutional conviction was already cemented," contributor GugaOnChain summarized.
CryptoQuant argued that in early February, when BTC/USD briefly fell to near $60,000, a "purge" of low-conviction investors had already been underway for several months. "Operators took profits, purging weak hands and retreating the support to $54.5K," GugaOnChain continued, referring to Bitcoin investors' average cost basis, also known as the realized price.
"In practice: the retail that paid the speculative premium at $90K entered absolute panic with the free fall. Forced to sell at a loss, they returned their Bitcoins to the Smart Money in the $62K zone, establishing an early support above the fair price."
CryptoQuant described the "apex" of the process as occurring in February, with a recovery underway ever since. "The apex of this purge occurred on February 5, 2026, consolidating the ground zero of this Bear Market. With the Spot squeezed at $62.8K and the Realized Price (RP) at $55.3K, the deviation was only 1.34%," GugaOnChain explained, calling it a "structural bottom."
"Unlike the absolute capitulation of 2022, when the price crossed below the network's base, this time the panic stalled at a 13% distance from the Wall. Institutional capital erected a concrete floor before the abyss, exhausting the selling power of investors without conviction."
US Macro Data May Save Bitcoin from a New Bear-Market Low
Throughout the current period of macro volatility, the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has served as a key upside catalyst for crypto and risk assets. This dynamic is set to continue, with PMI entering an "expansion" phase for the first time since 2022.
For commentator Matthew Hyland, this development now has implications for Bitcoin's price trajectory for the rest of 2026. In this bear-market year, BTC/USD would typically be expected to find a bottom in Q4, mirroring the 2022 cycle — but PMI data could change the landscape.
"Because of the strength of the PMI expansion trigger along with the other 10+ signals I do not believe the '4 year cycle' works out as most expect," he wrote on X.
Rather than breaking below its February lows, Bitcoin should instead put in a "higher low" near $60,000, contrary to the expectations of the majority. Hyland cited more than ten supporting signals indicating that the new bottom is already in place.
"My invalidation would be a severe black swan — something worse than the past few months — however black swans are NOT likely so it's low percentage odds of being invalidated and not favorable to happen," he added.
Why it matters
The 21-week EMA close is significant not just as a technical milestone but because analysts had explicitly framed it as the threshold separating a continued downtrend from a potential trend reversal — making it a decision point rather than a decorative indicator.
The FOMC meeting this week is the last one with Powell as chair, and historical data cited in the article places the average S&P 500 drawdown in a Fed chair transition year at 20%, giving equity-correlated assets like Bitcoin a specific macro risk context beyond the usual rate-decision uncertainty.
The onchain analysis distinguishing institutional holders from retail sellers during the February low matters because it frames the current price structure as one where selling pressure has already been absorbed — rather than one where a new wave of forced selling remains ahead.
