Oil prices continue to edge higher amid the absence of meaningful progress in US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest reports indicate that Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that the US blockade is lifted first, with nuclear talks to follow afterward. President Trump, however, has maintained that a deal must be reached before any blockade is removed. The fact that US stock markets have been posting new all-time highs on an almost daily basis appears unlikely to shift his stance. This dynamic could prolong the current stalemate and continue to provide support for oil prices.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, crude oil is now trading above the 93.00 resistance zone following a breakout in the latter part of last week. Buyers can be expected to continue stepping in around that zone, with a defined risk level below it, as they attempt to push prices toward the cycle highs. Sellers, on the other hand, will be looking for the price to fall back below the zone in order to position for a drop toward the 78.00 support level.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 4 Hour Timeframe
The 4-hour chart provides a clearer picture of recent price action, with bullish momentum picking up following a break above the downward trendline that had been defining the pullback into the 78.00 support. The first target for buyers is the swing level around the 105.00 handle, where sellers are likely to step in with a defined risk above that level, positioning for a potential drop back to the 93.00 support zone. Buyers, meanwhile, will be watching for a break above 105.00 to add to bullish positions and push into new highs.
Crude Oil Technical Analysis – 1 Hour Timeframe
On the 1-hour chart, there is little to add from a risk management perspective. Buyers will find a more favorable risk-to-reward setup around the support zone, while sellers will need a confirmed break below that zone to reopen the path toward new lows. The red lines on the chart define the average daily range for the current session.
Upcoming Economic Catalysts
Several key data releases are scheduled in the days ahead. The US Consumer Confidence report is due tomorrow. Wednesday brings the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision. Thursday sees the release of US Q1 GDP figures, the US Employment Cost Index, and the latest US Jobless Claims data. The week wraps up on Friday with the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. That said, market attention is expected to remain firmly focused on any developments in US-Iran headlines.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil flows; its continued closure removes a significant volume of supply from the market, which is why the negotiating deadlock directly sustains upward price pressure rather than merely creating uncertainty.
The sequencing dispute — Iran demanding the blockade lift before nuclear talks, the US insisting on a deal first — means neither side has an immediate off-ramp, making a near-term resolution structurally difficult regardless of diplomatic tone.
A dense calendar of US macro releases this week (FOMC decision, Q1 GDP, Employment Cost Index, ISM Manufacturing PMI) could shift broader risk sentiment and interact with oil's geopolitical premium in either direction, making position sizing around those events relevant for energy traders.
