The extended four-month period of calm across the crypto market appears to be drawing to a close, according to a prominent on-chain analyst.
CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn has issued a warning to investors, pointing to what he describes as an inevitable and abrupt breakout of Bitcoin from its current trading range. Based on his calculations, the magnitude of the anticipated move — expected next week or shortly thereafter — could reach anywhere from 10% to 20%.
The primary driver behind the coming surge in volatility, according to the analyst, is a record level of volatility compression visible on the Bitcoin price chart. The leading cryptocurrency has been confined within a narrow trading range for more than 114 consecutive days since February 2026, while the volatility indicator has been pressed to the floor, recently updating a multi-month low near 0.90%.
"Do not be surprised if Bitcoin moves 10–20% next week or the week after," Maartunn stated.
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The situation at the end of May is further complicated by the phenomenon of "empty" order books. Trading volumes on major spot exchanges have fallen to local lows, while long-term investors have locked their coins in non-custodial wallets, effectively removing supply from the market. The amount of Bitcoin available for purchase on exchanges has been significantly depleted.
Under such a severe liquidity deficit, the market does not require billion-dollar inflows to produce a strong price move. Any local catalyst — whether the Fed Beige Book release or an announcement of a purchase from a major buyer — could instantly pull the trigger.
Maartunn outlined two distinct scenarios for the breakout:
Bullish scenario: If the price consolidates above the upper boundary of the channel at $78,200, stop orders from short sellers will be activated, instantly catapulting Bitcoin into the $81,500–$88,000 area.
Bearish scenario: If sellers push through local support near $72,000, a cascade of forced liquidations of overloaded margin longs will begin, triggering a rapid price drop toward the $65,000–$58,800 levels.
The direction of the first strong impulse is expected to determine the long-term trend for the entire summer of 2026, and market participants are being urged to prepare for the end of the prolonged period of sideways trading.
Why it matters
Bitcoin has been confined to a narrow trading range for more than 114 consecutive days — a historically rare stretch of calm — while its volatility indicator has fallen to a multi-month low near 0.90%, signaling that a large move may be building.
With trading volumes at local lows and long-term holders removing supply from exchanges, the market is operating under a severe liquidity deficit, meaning even a modest catalyst could be enough to trigger a significant price move.
The two outlined scenarios carry asymmetric consequences: a break above the upper channel boundary could activate stop orders from short sellers and push prices sharply higher, while a break below local support could trigger a cascade of forced liquidations of margin longs and drive prices sharply lower.
