Ethereum traders are growing increasingly pessimistic about the asset's near-term prospects, with prediction market odds now favoring a further price decline as ETH continues to trade just above $2,000.
On the prediction platform Myriad, odds of a "dump" to $1,500 stand at 63% — up more than 13% over the past week — outpacing expectations of a recovery to $3,000. ETH was recently changing hands around $2,057, down 0.8% in the last 24 hours and more than 10% over the past month.
The prolonged slide has been fueled in part by a significant retreat from Ethereum exchange-traded funds. According to data from Farside, Ethereum ETFs have recorded net outflows for 11 consecutive days, with nearly $500 million in investments leaving those products during that stretch.
Despite the bearish backdrop, accumulation by institutional players has continued. Leading Ethereum treasury firm BitMine Immersion Technologies added approximately $230 million worth of ETH last week alone, pushing its total holdings above $11 billion in value. However, that aggressive buying has not appeared to translate into broader market demand for the asset.
Analysts note that Ethereum still holds a commanding position in key segments of the digital asset ecosystem. "Ethereum maintains a large share of the stablecoins and tokenized assets markets, and financial institutions continue to build on Ethereum," one analyst noted. "We expect Ethereum to rerate higher when the crypto market turns the corner and emerges from the bear market."
How significant any recovery might be remains uncertain. On Polymarket, predictors assign Ethereum 51% odds of falling back to $1,500 at some point during 2026. The chances of hitting higher price targets are considerably lower — just 26% for $3,500 and 16% for $4,000.
ETH set an all-time high of $4,946 in August and currently sits nearly 59% below that peak. Bitcoin, by comparison, is approximately 40% off its own record high above $126,000, which was set in October.
Why it matters
Sustained ETF outflows over 11 consecutive days signal that institutional demand through regulated products has weakened, even as some large treasury firms continue to accumulate ETH directly.
Prediction market odds now favor a further decline to $1,500 over a recovery to higher price targets, reflecting broadly cautious near-term sentiment among active market participants.
ETH's drawdown from its all-time high is roughly 19 percentage points deeper than Bitcoin's comparable decline from its own record peak, highlighting a meaningful divergence in relative performance between the two largest crypto assets.
