Inflation in Germany accelerated in April, driven largely by higher energy prices, pushing headline figures close to the 3% mark. A similar reading is expected for May.
Following the initial surge seen in earlier months, there is unlikely to be a significant jump between April and May. That expectation is also reflected in the monthly figure, where the consensus estimate stands at just +0.1%.
On an annual basis, headline inflation is forecast to hold steady at 2.9% — roughly in line with April's reading. Should it cross the 3% threshold, that would mark the highest level since December 2023.
One area of relative comfort is core inflation, which has remained contained. Core annual prices eased to 2.3% in April, down from 2.5% in March.
However, as the ongoing conflict continues and the summer months approach, energy price pressures are expected to spill over more prominently into other sectors. If those pressures become more entrenched, core prices could show a more pronounced increase heading into Q3 or later in the year.
The schedule for today's regional and national CPI releases is as follows:
0800 GMT — North Rhine Westphalia
0800 GMT — Hesse
0800 GMT — Bavaria
0800 GMT — Baden Wuerttemberg
0800 GMT — Saxony
1200 GMT — Germany national preliminary figures
Note that releases do not always adhere strictly to the listed times and may come in slightly earlier or later than scheduled.
Why it matters
Germany's national CPI figure is a preliminary release, meaning it feeds directly into the eurozone-wide inflation estimate published shortly after — giving it outsized weight for ECB policy watchers.
Regional state readings released at 0800 GMT serve as early indicators for the national figure, since Germany aggregates state-level data; traders and analysts typically use the first regional prints to adjust their forecasts before the 1200 GMT national release.
A breach of the 3% threshold would be the highest reading since December 2023, which could shift the narrative around the pace of any further ECB rate adjustments.
