EUROPEAN SESSION
The European session offers little in terms of major market-moving data, with only a handful of low-tier releases on the schedule, including the Spanish PPI and the UK CBI figures. Neither release is expected to alter the policy outlook for their respective central banks.
The European Central Bank is widely anticipated to raise rates in June, after which policymakers are expected to pause until at least September before considering any additional hike if economic conditions warrant it.
The Bank of England, meanwhile, is seen holding the Bank Rate steady at its June meeting. The first of two expected rate increases is not anticipated before September at the earliest.
AMERICAN SESSION
The main event in the American session is the release of the US Consumer Confidence report. The index is forecast to edge down to 92.0, compared to the prior reading of 92.8.
While this report can typically move markets — particularly when the outcome deviates significantly from expectations — it is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve's current policy stance. As a result, any market reaction is expected to be relatively subdued.
It is worth noting that the Fed has effectively stepped back from its easing bias, with Fed Governor Waller recently redirecting attention toward inflation concerns. The FOMC is now broadly expected to drop its easing bias in the June policy statement, unless the US-Iran situation reaches a formal resolution before then. Should the geopolitical backdrop remain unchanged, the Fed's June decision could come across as more hawkish than markets currently anticipate.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
13:00 GMT / 09:00 ET — ECB's Sleijpen (neutral, voter)
Why it matters
If the FOMC removes its easing bias in the June statement, it would mark a formal shift in official language signaling that near-term rate cuts are off the table — a meaningful change in the Fed's publicly stated policy direction.
The US Consumer Confidence report is a market-moving release when outcomes deviate significantly from expectations, making the 92.0 forecast a key threshold to watch in the American session.
The Bank of England is expected to hold rates steady in June, with the first of two anticipated hikes not coming before September at the earliest — meaning no imminent policy change from the BoE despite ongoing inflation concerns.
