Bitcoin climbed above $79,000 this week for the first time since January, and analysts at VanEck say key on-chain metrics continue to point toward further potential gains for the leading cryptocurrency.
In a report authored by VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, the firm highlighted historically bullish signals emerging across several indicators, including hash rate behavior and funding rates.
Why it matters
Negative funding rates have historically preceded outsized Bitcoin returns: since 2020, Bitcoin averaged 11.5% gains over 30-day periods with negative funding, versus 4.5% overall—and 19.4% when funding fell below -5%.
Hash rate drawdowns have a strong historical track record: six of seven past decline episodes resulted in Bitcoin trading higher 90 days later, with a median gain of 37.7%.
Spot Bitcoin ETP flows reversing to net positive in six of the last seven weeks signals renewed institutional participation after a period of sustained outflows.
Bitcoin's hash rate currently sits at a 30-day moving average of 985.5 EH/s, down 7.5% from its all-time high of 1,065.7 EH/s set in late November. The network has weathered three sustained decline episodes over just the past five months. The most recent episode ended April 15 after 16 days, with a peak decline of 6.7%.
Historically, such drawdowns have proven bullish: six of seven hash rate decline episodes resulted in Bitcoin trading higher 90 days later, posting a median gain of 37.7%.
The analysis also highlights negative funding rates as a powerful indicator. Bitcoin's funding rate recently turned negative to -1.8%, its lowest level since 2023. Since 2020, Bitcoin has averaged 11.5% returns during 30-day periods when funding rates were negative, compared to 4.5% overall returns. When funding dropped below -5%, returns jumped to 19.4% over 30-day periods and 70% over 180-day horizons.
Current transfer volume sits at $48.5 billion daily, representing the 81st percentile but down 5% month-over-month, as positioning flux declined alongside reduced volatility.
Beyond on-chain metrics, Bitcoin exchange-traded products experienced a dramatic sentiment reversal. After five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling $4 billion from January 24 through February 21, spot Bitcoin ETPs shifted to net positive flows in six of the last seven weeks through April 11. The turnaround suggests institutional appetite for Bitcoin exposure rebounded following the initial post-launch volatility period.
The firm has tracked similar patterns in previous market cycles, with the combination of hash rate drawdowns and negative funding rates preceding significant price appreciation.
At the time of the report, Bitcoin was down about 0.8% on the day, recently trading at $77,397. The coin is up more than 11% over the last 30 days, according to CoinGecko data.
Fast facts
Report authors: Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush (VanEck)
Bitcoin hash rate (30-day MA): 985.5 EH/s, down 7.5% from all-time high of 1,065.7 EH/s set in late November
Current funding rate: −1.8% (lowest since 2023)
Daily transfer volume: $48.5 billion (81st percentile historically, down 5% month-over-month)
Spot Bitcoin ETP flows: Net positive in 6 of last 7 weeks through April 11, following $4 billion in outflows over 5 prior weeks
Bitcoin price (at time of report): $77,397, up more than 11% over the prior 30 days
Key terms
Hash rate
A measure of the total computational power being used to mine and process transactions on the Bitcoin network. A declining hash rate means fewer miners are actively participating.
Funding rate
A periodic fee exchanged between buyers and sellers in perpetual futures markets. Negative funding rates indicate that short sellers are paying longs, often reflecting bearish or cautious market positioning.
Exchange-traded product (ETP)
A broad category of exchange-listed financial instruments that track an underlying asset. Spot Bitcoin ETPs hold actual Bitcoin rather than futures contracts.
