Veteran chartist and trader Peter Brandt has issued a stark warning for cryptocurrency investors, cautioning that Bitcoin could sink even further or experience a devastating "terminal wash-out" before any sustainable recovery takes hold.
Brandt stated that a genuine market bottom may not emerge until October, a prospect that would deal a significant blow to bullish sentiment.
"As I see it Bitcoin has met its initial target at Feb low. This does not mean that BTC cannot work lower or have a terminal wash-out. I do not see a tradable low until October," Brandt wrote on June 4, 2026.
His chart analysis highlighted an ascending channel that had governed Bitcoin's price movement from late February through May. However, Bitcoin subsequently collapsed below the lower support boundary of that channel, effectively confirming a trend reversal.
Following the breakdown, Bitcoin touched the critical 200-week moving average for the first time since October 2023. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju observed that "this distribution phase feels like a massive change of hands," noting that the average cost basis for Bitcoin investors currently sits around $53,000. Bear markets have historically tended to conclude only after prices capitulate below this realized price level.
Ju had initially believed it would be impossible to revisit that level during this cycle, given the scale of institutional inflows, but current data points to relentless selling pressure. The fact that prices have returned to early-2024 levels despite substantial ETF buying and growing corporate adoption suggests an immense volume of spot distribution from longer-term holders.
"Honestly, in terms of rising asset value, I think traditional financial institution investors might provide an even stronger demand base than Bitcoin OGs. Of course, in that process, some of the cypherpunk values may get diluted. I really regret that part too," Ju said.
Meanwhile, gold advocate Peter Schiff pointed out that Bitcoin is currently trading below the previous macro peak it established in April 2021. "At its current price, Bitcoin is actually trading below the peak it first hit in April 2021. That's over five years ago. @Saylor expects Bitcoin to rise by over 30% per year over the next five years. But over the past five years and two months, its total return has been negative," Schiff wrote on June 3, 2026.
Prominent bulls such as Michael Saylor have publicly forecast that Bitcoin will compound at more than 30% annually over the next five years. However, the performance of the past five-plus years tells a different story for investors who purchased at the 2021 highs, with total returns having turned negative for that cohort.
Why it matters
The 200-week moving average is widely watched as a long-term support benchmark, and Bitcoin touching it for the first time since October 2023 signals that the current price decline has reached a historically significant technical level.
The average cost basis for Bitcoin investors sitting around $53,000 means a large portion of the market is near or below breakeven, which historically has preceded further capitulation before bear markets conclude.
Prominent institutional and retail buyers who entered near the 2021 highs are now holding negative total returns despite years of ETF inflows and corporate adoption, illustrating that macro entry timing remains a key risk factor.
